Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 57.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Kuraly 53.7% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 74.7%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 79.1%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 60.3%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 71.1%
28.9%
71.1%
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Last 7: O'Reilly 2-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
4
O'Reilly
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
55.3% (515)
+0.9%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
55.6% (9)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
44.8% (58)
+7.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
O'Reilly shoots left. Kuraly is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Home
56.2% (697)
57.3% (293)
Away
55.1% (642)
51.2% (289)
By Period
O'Reilly
Kuraly
P1
54.5%
53.8%
P2
55.5%
51.5%
P3
57.1%
57.6%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 17:56 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:43 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:49 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |