Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Kuraly 48.4% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 78.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 81.5%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 50.5%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
O'Reilly
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
49.4% (445)
+5.6%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
100.0% (3)
-43.2%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
41.9% (117)
-1.6%
On power play, Kuraly has a +43.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
O'Reilly shoots left. Kuraly is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (354).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Home
54.8% (759)
49.2% (248)
Away
53.0% (777)
47.3% (317)
By Period
O'Reilly
Kuraly
P1
55.3%
48.3%
P2
51.9%
44.7%
P3
54.2%
51.7%
Final 5 min
56.3%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 13:10 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |