Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 22 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Kuraly 50.3% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 28-27 in 55 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 77.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 77.3%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 57.8%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
28
(55 meetings)
27
28
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
18
5
O'Reilly
Kuraly
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
4
18
O'Reilly
Kuraly
22 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
O'Reilly
Kuraly
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
51.5% (5,141)
+4.7%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
56.0% (100)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
44.2% (1,086)
+7.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Home
57.6% (10,762)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
O'Reilly
Kuraly
P1
55.6%
51.1%
P2
57.0%
49.9%
P3
55.1%
50.0%
OT
62.2%
52.3%
Final 5 min
55.3%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 17:56 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:43 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:49 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 13:10 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 02:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 14:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 2 | 18:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 12:01 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 04:34 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 01:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |