Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.5% vs Hertl 51.4% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 75.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 82.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 79.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
O'Reilly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
O'Reilly
Hertl
Last 6: O'Reilly 5-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
O'Reilly
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (1,367)
51.7% (869)
+5.4%
Power Play
59.4% (286)
55.7% (176)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
52.5% (257)
44.9% (138)
+7.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
O'Reilly shoots left. Hertl is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Hertl
Home
59.2% (936)
51.8% (583)
Away
54.6% (974)
51.2% (600)
By Period
O'Reilly
Hertl
P1
57.3%
52.5%
P2
57.5%
50.9%
P3
55.0%
51.0%
OT
71.1%
53.3%
Final 5 min
54.7%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 13:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 05:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 03:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |