Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 55.9%). Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 57.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Hertl 55.4% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 55.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
O'Reilly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
O'Reilly
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
O'Reilly
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
O'Reilly
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
54.1% (717)
+2.1%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
61.9% (210)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
58.1% (31)
-6.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
O'Reilly shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Hertl
Home
56.2% (697)
58.1% (492)
Away
55.1% (642)
53.6% (466)
By Period
O'Reilly
Hertl
P1
54.5%
57.1%
P2
55.5%
54.0%
P3
57.1%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |