Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 42 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Hertl 54.2% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 72-61 in 133 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 65.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 58.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
O'Reilly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
72
-
61
(133 meetings)
72
61
O'Reilly
Hertl
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
24
18
O'Reilly
Hertl
42 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
23
19
O'Reilly
Hertl
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
25
24
O'Reilly
Hertl
49 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
53.8% (8,268)
+2.4%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
59.3% (1,975)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
46.3% (806)
+5.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Hertl
Home
57.6% (10,762)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
O'Reilly
Hertl
P1
55.6%
53.6%
P2
57.0%
54.1%
P3
55.1%
55.3%
OT
62.2%
46.5%
Final 5 min
55.3%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 15:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 16:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 02:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 14:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |