Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 58.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 73.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 57.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
O'Reilly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
O'Reilly
Hertl
Last 7: O'Reilly 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
O'Reilly
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (826)
58.1% (823)
-2.7%
Power Play
57.9% (221)
56.2% (265)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (129)
62.9% (35)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
O'Reilly shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Hertl
Home
55.8% (579)
59.7% (561)
Away
54.9% (597)
55.9% (562)
By Period
O'Reilly
Hertl
P1
57.7%
51.6%
P2
54.8%
63.8%
P3
54.3%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
55.5%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 15:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |