Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Hertl 54.5% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 79.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 54.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
O'Reilly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
O'Reilly
Hertl
Last 8: O'Reilly 6-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
2
O'Reilly
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
54.1% (1,117)
+2.0%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
59.8% (296)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
34.4% (32)
+11.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
O'Reilly shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Hertl
Home
58.3% (408)
54.3% (709)
Away
53.6% (487)
55.3% (736)
By Period
O'Reilly
Hertl
P1
57.7%
51.6%
P2
54.8%
53.6%
P3
55.2%
58.6%
OT
45.5%
45.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 14:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 06:59 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 09:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |