Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.4% vs Hertl 52.3% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 57.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 69.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
O'Reilly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
O'Reilly
Hertl
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
O'Reilly
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,064)
51.6% (1,084)
+5.0%
Power Play
60.4% (260)
61.0% (246)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
54.0% (261)
44.1% (136)
+9.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
O'Reilly shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Hertl
Home
54.9% (801)
55.2% (696)
Away
58.7% (784)
50.0% (770)
By Period
O'Reilly
Hertl
P1
58.0%
55.4%
P2
56.7%
54.8%
P3
55.4%
48.9%
OT
64.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 14:38 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 12:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 14:06 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 10:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 03:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 19:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |