Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Hertl 56.8% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 59.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
O'Reilly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
O'Reilly
Hertl
Last 9: O'Reilly 4-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
O'Reilly
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
O'Reilly
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
57.0% (718)
-2.0%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
64.9% (188)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
44.2% (77)
-3.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
O'Reilly shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Hertl
Home
54.8% (759)
59.2% (463)
Away
53.0% (777)
56.0% (520)
By Period
O'Reilly
Hertl
P1
55.3%
56.3%
P2
51.9%
55.4%
P3
54.2%
60.5%
OT
64.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 16:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 02:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |