Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 58.1% vs Hertl 54.7% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 29-22 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 68.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 59.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
O'Reilly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
22
(51 meetings)
29
22
O'Reilly
Hertl
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
11
6
O'Reilly
Hertl
17 total
Defensive Zone
Even
9
9
O'Reilly
Hertl
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
7
O'Reilly
Hertl
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (841)
55.7% (648)
+2.9%
Power Play
59.9% (207)
60.4% (149)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (148)
42.2% (83)
+15.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (865).
O'Reilly shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Hertl
Home
59.8% (594)
58.3% (391)
Away
57.8% (602)
52.8% (489)
By Period
O'Reilly
Hertl
P1
61.7%
58.9%
P2
56.2%
51.5%
P3
59.5%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
76.9%
Final 5 min
59.5%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2021 | 3 | 17:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2021 | OT | 04:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 3 | 07:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 07:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 04:33 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 04:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 04:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 01:17 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 1 | 15:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 1 | 15:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 1 | 11:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 19:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 18:40 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 09:25 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |