Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Nosek 58.0% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 82.5%
Defensive zone
Nosek 67.5%
Neutral zone
Nosek 57.0%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
O'Reilly
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
O'Reilly
Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
2
O'Reilly
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
59.7% (469)
-3.6%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
100.0% (4)
-35.4%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
56.5% (124)
-10.6%
On power play, Nosek has a +35.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
O'Reilly shoots left. Nosek is 63.4% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Nosek
Home
58.3% (408)
59.0% (295)
Away
53.6% (487)
59.6% (302)
By Period
O'Reilly
Nosek
P1
57.7%
56.3%
P2
54.8%
61.9%
P3
55.2%
59.2%
OT
45.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
61.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |