Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Nosek 53.6% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 14-10 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Nosek 55.6%
Defensive zone
Nosek 77.3%
Neutral zone
Nosek 67.5%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
O'Reilly
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
14
(24 meetings)
10
14
O'Reilly
Nosek
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
5
O'Reilly
Nosek
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
2
8
O'Reilly
Nosek
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
54.9% (2,674)
+1.3%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
44.7% (47)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
47.4% (424)
+4.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Nosek is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,942).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Nosek
Home
57.6% (10,762)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
O'Reilly
Nosek
P1
55.6%
52.3%
P2
57.0%
54.0%
P3
55.1%
54.6%
OT
62.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 15:27 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 3 | 07:12 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 1 | 15:28 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 1 | 08:33 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 10:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 17:24 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |