Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Nosek 51.4% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 78.1%
Defensive zone
Nosek 54.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 61.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
O'Reilly
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
O'Reilly
Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Nosek
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
54.4% (215)
+0.6%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
0.0% (1)
+56.8%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
23.5% (17)
+16.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +56.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
O'Reilly shoots left. Nosek is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Nosek
Home
54.8% (759)
50.4% (127)
Away
53.0% (777)
53.8% (106)
By Period
O'Reilly
Nosek
P1
55.3%
51.4%
P2
51.9%
51.3%
P3
54.2%
53.2%
Final 5 min
56.3%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |