Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 57.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Nosek 51.4% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.4%
Defensive zone
Nosek 70.4%
Neutral zone
Nosek 52.0%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
O'Reilly
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
O'Reilly
Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
2
O'Reilly
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
53.0% (400)
+3.2%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
33.3% (12)
+22.2%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
45.5% (44)
+6.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
O'Reilly shoots left. Nosek is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (304).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Nosek
Home
56.2% (697)
49.6% (244)
Away
55.1% (642)
54.2% (212)
By Period
O'Reilly
Nosek
P1
54.5%
53.1%
P2
55.5%
51.4%
P3
57.1%
51.1%
Final 5 min
56.2%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 15:27 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |