Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +21.2% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 60.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 57.6% vs Gourde 41.8% (+21.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 67.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 74.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 74.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
O'Reilly
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
O'Reilly
Gourde
Last 7: O'Reilly 4-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (1,179)
39.8% (128)
+18.1%
Power Play
63.0% (292)
25.0% (12)
+38.0%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (320)
26.1% (23)
+27.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +38.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,095).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gourde is 39.6% vs left-shot opponents (101).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gourde
Home
61.3% (884)
43.2% (95)
Away
54.8% (907)
27.9% (68)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gourde
P1
55.5%
43.1%
P2
61.0%
33.3%
P3
56.8%
34.5%
OT
67.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.6%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
36.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2017 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 3 | 03:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 05:59 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 04:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |