Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 57.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Gourde 49.7% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 77.7%
Defensive zone
Gourde 54.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
O'Reilly
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
O'Reilly
Gourde
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
2
O'Reilly
Gourde
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
3
O'Reilly
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
51.2% (469)
+5.0%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
42.9% (21)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
37.5% (48)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gourde
Home
56.2% (697)
47.8% (301)
Away
55.1% (642)
51.9% (237)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gourde
P1
54.5%
47.3%
P2
55.5%
53.4%
P3
57.1%
48.6%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 15:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 13:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 03:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:05 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 08:39 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 05:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 11:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 02:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |