Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.4% vs Gourde 49.5% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 81.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 81.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 72.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
O'Reilly
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
O'Reilly
Gourde
Last 7: O'Reilly 5-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,064)
49.1% (731)
+7.5%
Power Play
60.4% (260)
54.3% (81)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
54.0% (261)
48.2% (85)
+5.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gourde is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (556).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gourde
Home
54.9% (801)
50.9% (479)
Away
58.7% (784)
47.8% (418)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gourde
P1
58.0%
51.2%
P2
56.7%
49.8%
P3
55.4%
47.5%
OT
64.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 15:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 2 | 13:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 2 | 13:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |