Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 24 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Gourde 48.2% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 36-25 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 90.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 82.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 86.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 86.6%
86.6%
13.4%
O'Reilly
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
25
(61 meetings)
36
25
O'Reilly
Gourde
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
15
9
O'Reilly
Gourde
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
11
9
O'Reilly
Gourde
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
10
7
O'Reilly
Gourde
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
48.4% (4,954)
+7.8%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
57.4% (376)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
39.9% (554)
+11.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gourde
Home
57.6% (10,762)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gourde
P1
55.6%
49.9%
P2
57.0%
47.4%
P3
55.1%
47.5%
OT
62.2%
37.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 15:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 13:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 03:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:05 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 08:39 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 05:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 11:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 02:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 13:32 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 02:44 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |