Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.9% vs Gourde 46.0% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 90.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 55.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 72.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
O'Reilly
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
O'Reilly
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (826)
47.2% (654)
+8.2%
Power Play
57.9% (221)
45.0% (20)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (129)
32.2% (87)
+18.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gourde
Home
55.8% (579)
44.1% (322)
Away
54.9% (597)
46.5% (439)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gourde
P1
57.7%
42.4%
P2
54.8%
49.8%
P3
54.3%
44.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |