Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Gourde 48.0% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 68.0%
Defensive zone
Gourde 70.0%
Neutral zone
Gourde 51.3%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
O'Reilly
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
O'Reilly
Gourde
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
2
O'Reilly
Gourde
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
4
O'Reilly
Gourde
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
48.0% (914)
+7.0%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
54.2% (48)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
43.9% (123)
-3.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gourde
Home
54.8% (759)
50.2% (512)
Away
53.0% (777)
45.7% (573)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gourde
P1
55.3%
50.0%
P2
51.9%
45.3%
P3
54.2%
48.6%
OT
64.7%
20.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 13:32 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 02:44 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 15:36 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 08:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 07:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 14:14 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 12:05 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 04:24 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 16:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 11:28 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |