Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Gourde 49.7% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 58.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 66.2%
66.2%
33.8%
O'Reilly
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
O'Reilly
Gourde
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
49.1% (847)
+7.0%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
79.5% (44)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
39.5% (81)
+6.4%
On power play, Gourde has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gourde is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gourde
Home
58.3% (408)
50.1% (491)
Away
53.6% (487)
49.3% (481)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gourde
P1
57.7%
54.7%
P2
54.8%
45.0%
P3
55.2%
49.4%
OT
45.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 13:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 1 | 02:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 1 | 01:18 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |