Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bennett wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bennett 46.6% vs Hertl 55.4% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Bennett 76.4%
Defensive zone
Bennett 68.3%
Neutral zone
Bennett 67.3%
Result
Sam Bennett favored at 71.5%
71.5%
28.5%
Bennett
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Bennett
Hertl
Last 10: Bennett 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Bennett
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Bennett
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bennett
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bennett
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (909)
54.1% (717)
-7.6%
Power Play
43.1% (51)
61.9% (210)
-18.8%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
58.1% (31)
-19.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bennett is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Bennett shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Bennett
Hertl
Home
45.4% (449)
58.1% (492)
Away
46.9% (524)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Bennett
Hertl
P1
49.6%
57.1%
P2
43.7%
54.0%
P3
45.1%
56.6%
OT
57.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.4%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
46.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 1 | 04:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | OT | 01:46 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 15:56 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:33 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 18:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 07:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |