Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bennett wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bennett 48.3% vs Hertl 57.2% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bennett 61.9%
Defensive zone
Bennett 66.0%
Neutral zone
Bennett 62.9%
Result
Sam Bennett favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Bennett
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Bennett
Hertl
Last 8: Bennett 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Bennett
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
2
0
Bennett
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Bennett
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bennett
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (780)
58.1% (823)
-11.7%
Power Play
57.3% (150)
56.2% (265)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (46)
62.9% (35)
-15.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bennett is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Bennett shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Bennett
Hertl
Home
50.3% (519)
59.7% (561)
Away
45.7% (457)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Bennett
Hertl
P1
47.5%
51.6%
P2
46.6%
63.8%
P3
49.8%
58.6%
OT
70.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
44.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
48.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 04:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 02:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 09:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 02:16 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 08:47 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |