Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 19 meetings). Bennett wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bennett 47.2% vs Hertl 54.2% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 34-26 in 60 meetings
Offensive zone
Bennett 72.3%
Defensive zone
Bennett 84.6%
Neutral zone
Bennett 75.8%
Result
Sam Bennett favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Bennett
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
34
(60 meetings)
26
34
Bennett
Hertl
Last 10: Bennett 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
13
15
Bennett
Hertl
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
11
Bennett
Hertl
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
8
Bennett
Hertl
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bennett
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (5,683)
53.8% (8,268)
-7.0%
Power Play
53.7% (555)
59.3% (1,975)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
41.8% (256)
46.3% (806)
-4.5%
On even strength, Hertl has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bennett is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,232).
Bennett shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Bennett
Hertl
Home
48.4% (3,262)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
45.9% (3,232)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Bennett
Hertl
P1
48.0%
53.6%
P2
46.5%
54.1%
P3
46.9%
55.3%
OT
52.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
45.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 04:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 02:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 09:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 02:16 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 08:47 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 1 | 04:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | OT | 01:46 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 15:56 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:33 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 18:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 07:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |