Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Lafferty 49.7% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 86.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 81.2%
81.2%
18.8%
Nelson
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nelson
Lafferty
Last 5: Nelson 4-1 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Lafferty
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Nelson
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
51.5% (204)
-0.8%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
41.7% (12)
+18.1%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
35.0% (20)
+13.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Lafferty is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (178).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lafferty
Home
53.6% (603)
49.2% (124)
Away
49.9% (585)
50.0% (112)
By Period
Nelson
Lafferty
P1
55.4%
48.9%
P2
47.2%
48.1%
P3
52.6%
51.6%
OT
51.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 17:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |