Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Lafferty wins 40.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 43.5% vs Hertl 52.3% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.1%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 63.3%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 56.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Lafferty
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Lafferty
Hertl
Last 6: Lafferty 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lafferty
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Lafferty
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
2
0
Lafferty
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (232)
51.6% (1,084)
-10.7%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
61.0% (246)
+39.0%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
44.1% (136)
-4.1%
On power play, Lafferty has a +39.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lafferty is 40.4% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Lafferty shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Hertl
Home
38.2% (123)
55.2% (696)
Away
43.6% (140)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Lafferty
Hertl
P1
41.6%
55.4%
P2
36.7%
54.8%
P3
45.5%
48.9%
Final 5 min
44.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
41.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 15:38 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 04:31 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 07:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |