Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lafferty wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 47.6% vs Hertl 54.2% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 70.6%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 69.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.2%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Lafferty
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Lafferty
Hertl
Last 10: Lafferty 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Lafferty
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
4
Lafferty
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
4
2
Lafferty
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,413)
53.8% (8,268)
-5.8%
Power Play
45.7% (46)
59.3% (1,975)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (184)
46.3% (806)
-2.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lafferty is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,248).
Lafferty shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Hertl
Home
47.3% (833)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
47.5% (810)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Lafferty
Hertl
P1
49.4%
53.6%
P2
43.1%
54.1%
P3
49.8%
55.3%
OT
60.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
45.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 12:14 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 14:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 17:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 15:38 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 04:31 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 07:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |