Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 50.4% vs Hertl 55.4% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.7%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 70.2%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 51.5%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Lafferty
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Lafferty
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Lafferty
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (144)
54.1% (717)
-3.4%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
61.9% (210)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
58.1% (31)
-8.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lafferty is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Lafferty shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Hertl
Home
53.2% (62)
58.1% (492)
Away
48.9% (94)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Lafferty
Hertl
P1
53.3%
57.1%
P2
46.7%
54.0%
P3
52.8%
56.6%
Final 5 min
52.9%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
50.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |