Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.4% FO% edge overall. Lafferty wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 43.9% vs Hertl 56.8% (-15.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 58.3%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 57.1%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 57.0%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Lafferty
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Lafferty
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Lafferty
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Lafferty
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lafferty
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
42.6% (324)
57.0% (718)
-14.4%
Power Play
31.3% (16)
64.9% (188)
-33.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
44.2% (77)
-0.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +33.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lafferty is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (268).
Lafferty shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Hertl
Home
40.9% (181)
59.2% (463)
Away
43.4% (175)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Lafferty
Hertl
P1
42.2%
56.3%
P2
36.4%
55.4%
P3
48.6%
60.5%
Final 5 min
37.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
42.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 14:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 17:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |