Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Lafferty wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 50.7% vs Hertl 57.2% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 60.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 67.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Lafferty
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Lafferty
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lafferty
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
0
Lafferty
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (42)
58.1% (823)
-5.7%
On even strength, Hertl has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lafferty is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (33).
Lafferty shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Hertl
Home
47.8% (23)
59.7% (561)
Away
57.9% (19)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Lafferty
Hertl
P1
53.3%
51.6%
P2
55.6%
63.8%
P3
47.1%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
33.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 12:14 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |