Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 50.9% vs Hertl 54.5% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 87.0%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 74.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 62.5%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Lafferty
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Lafferty
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Lafferty
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
2
0
Lafferty
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (366)
54.1% (1,117)
-1.9%
Power Play
60.0% (15)
59.8% (296)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (104)
34.4% (32)
+11.8%
On penalty kill, Lafferty has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Lafferty shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Hertl
Home
53.1% (258)
54.3% (709)
Away
48.9% (227)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Lafferty
Hertl
P1
52.5%
51.6%
P2
49.7%
53.6%
P3
51.3%
58.6%
OT
33.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
49.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |