Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Steel 52.3% vs Hertl 54.7% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 63.9%
Defensive zone
Steel 57.1%
Neutral zone
Steel 65.8%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Steel
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Steel
Hertl
Last 9: Steel 3-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Steel
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Steel
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Steel
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Steel
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (401)
55.7% (648)
-4.1%
Power Play
66.7% (39)
60.4% (149)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
42.2% (83)
+2.2%
On power play, Steel has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Steel is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Steel shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
Steel
Hertl
Home
55.8% (206)
58.3% (391)
Away
50.2% (243)
52.8% (489)
By Period
Steel
Hertl
P1
57.0%
58.9%
P2
50.7%
51.5%
P3
51.0%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
76.9%
Final 5 min
52.5%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
52.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2021 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 16:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 16:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 1 | 15:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 6, 2021 | OT | 03:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 2 | 12:01 | Defensive | Sam Steel |