Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Steel 49.4% vs Hertl 52.3% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 52.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 55.6%
Neutral zone
Steel 50.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Steel
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Steel
Hertl
Last 8: Steel 4-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Steel
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Steel
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
3
1
Steel
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Steel
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (383)
51.6% (1,084)
-2.3%
Power Play
59.1% (22)
61.0% (246)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
44.1% (136)
-29.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +29.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Steel is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Steel shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Steel
Hertl
Home
49.4% (180)
55.2% (696)
Away
49.1% (232)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Steel
Hertl
P1
51.9%
55.4%
P2
43.8%
54.8%
P3
52.6%
48.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 08:25 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 18:36 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 02:35 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 15:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |