Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Steel wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Steel 52.8% vs Hertl 55.4% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 84.1%
Defensive zone
Steel 53.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 65.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Steel
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Steel
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Steel
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
2
0
Steel
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
0
Steel
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Steel
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (320)
54.1% (717)
+2.8%
Power Play
71.4% (7)
61.9% (210)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (73)
58.1% (31)
-21.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Steel is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Steel shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Steel
Hertl
Home
55.9% (202)
58.1% (492)
Away
51.0% (198)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Steel
Hertl
P1
55.5%
57.1%
P2
55.1%
54.0%
P3
50.3%
56.6%
Final 5 min
60.6%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
53.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:16 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:39 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |