Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Steel wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Steel 48.8% vs Hertl 54.5% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 55.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Steel
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Steel
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Steel
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
2
0
Steel
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Steel
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (553)
54.1% (1,117)
-4.6%
Power Play
61.3% (31)
59.8% (296)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (49)
34.4% (32)
-3.8%
On even strength, Hertl has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Steel is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (378).
Steel shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Steel
Hertl
Home
46.4% (347)
54.3% (709)
Away
51.4% (286)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Steel
Hertl
P1
52.1%
51.6%
P2
49.8%
53.6%
P3
45.2%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
42.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2022 | 3 | 13:10 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Sam Steel |