Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Steel 50.2% vs Hertl 54.2% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 15-13 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 68.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 62.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 64.4%
35.6%
64.4%
Steel
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
13
(28 meetings)
15
13
Steel
Hertl
Last 10: Steel 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
7
Steel
Hertl
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
7
4
Steel
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
5
2
Steel
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Steel
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (2,876)
53.8% (8,268)
-3.2%
Power Play
62.6% (179)
59.3% (1,975)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
37.4% (254)
46.3% (806)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Steel shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Steel
Hertl
Home
50.0% (1,560)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
50.4% (1,749)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Steel
Hertl
P1
51.9%
53.6%
P2
49.5%
54.1%
P3
49.6%
55.3%
OT
41.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
48.4%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:16 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:39 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 3 | 13:10 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 08:25 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 18:36 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 02:35 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 15:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 16:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 16:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |