Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 54.5% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 57.9%
Defensive zone
Monahan 57.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 55.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Monahan
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Monahan
Stamkos
Last 6: Monahan 4-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Monahan
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
0
Monahan
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (871)
55.9% (499)
+1.2%
Power Play
53.1% (262)
56.3% (126)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (139)
58.3% (12)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Monahan shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Monahan
Stamkos
Home
55.3% (644)
55.3% (349)
Away
54.5% (628)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Monahan
Stamkos
P1
53.9%
57.0%
P2
55.3%
59.2%
P3
54.4%
51.5%
OT
76.5%
55.6%
Final 5 min
55.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 18:40 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 15:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |