Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.3% vs 51.0%). Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.3% vs Stamkos 51.0% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 28-20 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 52.7%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 52.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 55.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Monahan
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
28
(48 meetings)
20
28
Monahan
Stamkos
Last 10: Monahan 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
9
7
Monahan
Stamkos
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
9
11
Monahan
Stamkos
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
10
Monahan
Stamkos
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,356)
50.4% (9,799)
+0.7%
Power Play
53.7% (2,580)
55.1% (1,725)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (766)
49.7% (825)
-3.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Monahan shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Monahan
Stamkos
Home
52.4% (7,358)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
50.2% (7,344)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Monahan
Stamkos
P1
50.9%
49.1%
P2
51.7%
52.7%
P3
51.0%
50.9%
OT
53.5%
54.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:52 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 11:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 05:14 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 07:47 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 18:40 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 15:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 07:14 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 2 | 18:47 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 3 | 18:31 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 3 | 14:50 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |