Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Monahan wins 55.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.4% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 75.5%
Defensive zone
Monahan 65.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 56.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Monahan
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Monahan
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Monahan
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Monahan
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (853)
49.3% (670)
+3.1%
Power Play
58.6% (174)
53.7% (121)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (144)
33.3% (3)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Monahan is 55.3% vs right-shot opponents (389).
Monahan shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Monahan
Stamkos
Home
53.4% (624)
54.0% (400)
Away
51.7% (547)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Monahan
Stamkos
P1
53.7%
48.6%
P2
52.4%
54.5%
P3
51.6%
45.4%
OT
57.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.2%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 11:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 05:14 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 07:47 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |