Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Monahan wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.8% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 60.6%
Defensive zone
Monahan 64.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 52.8%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Monahan
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Monahan
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Monahan
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (823)
56.1% (342)
-2.9%
Power Play
55.3% (159)
53.3% (92)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (95)
62.5% (8)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Monahan shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Monahan
Stamkos
Home
54.6% (529)
53.4% (208)
Away
51.6% (548)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Monahan
Stamkos
P1
49.0%
55.6%
P2
55.4%
52.8%
P3
53.6%
59.1%
OT
61.9%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.0%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:52 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |