Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 18 meetings). Dowd wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 55.5% vs Crosby 53.3% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 25-20 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 87.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 76.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 59.2%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Dowd
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
25
(45 meetings)
20
25
Dowd
Crosby
Last 10: Dowd 6-4 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
3
15
Dowd
Crosby
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
11
3
Dowd
Crosby
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
6
7
Dowd
Crosby
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (617)
54.3% (996)
+3.9%
Power Play
71.4% (7)
53.5% (215)
+17.9%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (144)
39.2% (51)
+8.0%
On power play, Dowd has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Dowd is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Dowd shoots right. Crosby is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (628).
Home / Away
Dowd
Crosby
Home
58.4% (399)
55.8% (615)
Away
53.9% (369)
51.5% (647)
By Period
Dowd
Crosby
P1
59.0%
58.7%
P2
56.1%
50.0%
P3
54.6%
51.7%
OT
33.3%
61.5%
Final 5 min
53.5%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
56.3%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 11:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 02:20 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 09:41 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 01:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 14:38 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 07:56 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 02:55 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 3 | 03:18 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 11:41 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 23, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 3 | 10:59 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 3 | 10:37 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 3 | 05:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 2 | 16:21 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 2 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |