Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.0% vs 57.2%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings). Staal wins 61.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.3% vs Stamkos 55.8% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 20-13 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 60.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 51.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 52.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Staal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
20
(33 meetings)
13
20
Staal
Stamkos
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
7
13
Staal
Stamkos
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
6
5
Staal
Stamkos
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Staal
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (780)
56.5% (246)
+0.7%
Power Play
71.3% (171)
61.4% (101)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (132)
53.6% (69)
-8.1%
On power play, Staal has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Staal is 61.5% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Staal shoots left. Stamkos is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Staal
Stamkos
Home
57.6% (566)
54.7% (170)
Away
58.4% (517)
58.9% (246)
By Period
Staal
Stamkos
P1
55.6%
60.9%
P2
58.5%
59.2%
P3
60.6%
50.4%
OT
43.5%
71.4%
Final 5 min
56.6%
67.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
57.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:35 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 14:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 10:03 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 08:20 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 18:53 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 12:01 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 3 | 07:48 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 3 | 04:08 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 19:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 09:16 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 3 | 15:58 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 3 | 15:52 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 3 | 02:01 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 07:05 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |