Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Horvat wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs Hertl 57.1% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.8%
Defensive zone
Horvat 52.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Horvat
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Horvat
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Horvat
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
0
Horvat
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (670)
58.0% (816)
-2.8%
Power Play
61.8% (225)
56.5% (260)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (98)
62.9% (35)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Horvat is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (597).
Horvat shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Horvat
Hertl
Home
58.1% (449)
59.7% (561)
Away
54.0% (544)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Horvat
Hertl
P1
59.2%
51.4%
P2
53.1%
64.1%
P3
55.8%
58.5%
OT
55.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
59.5%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.9%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 01:26 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |