Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Schenn on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.3% vs Hertl 57.1% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Schenn leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 89.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 67.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 70.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 80.4%
19.6%
80.4%
Schenn
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Schenn
Hertl
Last 10: Schenn 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
5
1
Schenn
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
2
0
Schenn
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
2
1
Schenn
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (608)
58.0% (816)
-6.7%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
56.5% (260)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
72.7% (22)
62.9% (35)
+9.8%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Schenn is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Schenn shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Schenn
Hertl
Home
54.1% (362)
59.7% (561)
Away
53.3% (375)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Schenn
Hertl
P1
48.4%
51.4%
P2
52.2%
64.1%
P3
59.2%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
50.0%▼
53.5%
53.7%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 12:44 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 19:59 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:32 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |