Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 47.3% vs Hertl 54.7% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 92.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 90.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 85.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 89.9%
10.1%
89.9%
Bjugstad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Bjugstad
Hertl
Last 5: Bjugstad 5-0 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
3
0
Bjugstad
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
0
Bjugstad
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (238)
55.7% (648)
-9.9%
Power Play
50.0% (30)
60.4% (149)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
42.2% (83)
+7.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (203).
Bjugstad shoots right. Hertl is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Hertl
Home
48.9% (133)
58.3% (391)
Away
43.8% (137)
52.8% (489)
By Period
Bjugstad
Hertl
P1
50.0%
58.9%
P2
40.6%
51.5%
P3
49.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
45.5%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
46.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2021 | 1 | 05:36 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 16:41 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 19:08 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 19:02 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |