Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Schmaltz wins 37.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 40.4% vs Hertl 51.4% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 72.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 52.1%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 66.0%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Schmaltz
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Schmaltz
Hertl
Last 8: Schmaltz 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
0
Schmaltz
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Schmaltz
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Schmaltz
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
37.6% (237)
51.7% (869)
-14.1%
Power Play
32.5% (40)
55.7% (176)
-23.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
44.9% (138)
+5.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Schmaltz is 37.3% vs left-shot opponents (204).
Schmaltz shoots right. Hertl is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (480).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Hertl
Home
42.6% (129)
51.8% (583)
Away
32.2% (152)
51.2% (600)
By Period
Schmaltz
Hertl
P1
38.8%
52.5%
P2
29.4%
50.9%
P3
42.2%
51.0%
OT
33.3%
53.3%
Final 5 min
36.4%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
37.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2018 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 14:36 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 14:13 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 18:02 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 06:55 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 15:26 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 06:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 00:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |