Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.8% vs Hertl 57.1% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 75.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 60.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
O'Reilly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
O'Reilly
Hertl
Last 7: O'Reilly 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
O'Reilly
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (815)
58.0% (816)
-2.7%
Power Play
58.0% (219)
56.5% (260)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (124)
62.9% (35)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (660).
O'Reilly shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Hertl
Home
55.8% (579)
59.7% (561)
Away
54.6% (579)
55.8% (550)
By Period
O'Reilly
Hertl
P1
57.5%
51.4%
P2
54.7%
64.1%
P3
54.1%
58.5%
OT
48.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
55.8%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 15:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |