Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.8% vs 51.4%). Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 50.7% vs Nylander 51.2% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 61.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Hertl
Nylander
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Hertl
Nylander
Last 7: Hertl 5-2 Nylander
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nylander
0
1
Hertl
Nylander
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
1
Hertl
Nylander
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Nylander
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (891)
51.7% (574)
-0.2%
Power Play
54.8% (135)
47.9% (73)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (130)
66.7% (3)
-25.2%
On penalty kill, Nylander has a +25.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nylander shoots right. Hertl is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (441).
Hertl shoots left. Nylander is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Home / Away
Hertl
Nylander
Home
52.6% (544)
51.8% (336)
Away
49.2% (612)
51.0% (314)
By Period
Hertl
Nylander
P1
49.4%
53.6%
P2
51.7%
44.4%
P3
51.4%
55.4%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.0%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
50.8%
Nylander
34.0%▼
44.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2018 | 3 | 19:04 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 3 | 18:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 3 | 09:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 2 | 03:44 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 3 | 10:09 | Defensive | William Nylander |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 3 | 04:34 | Neutral | William Nylander |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 1 | 02:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |