Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 58.1% vs Nosek 51.3% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nosek 82.0%
Defensive zone
Nosek 82.8%
Neutral zone
Nosek 81.7%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 82.4%
17.6%
82.4%
O'Reilly
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
O'Reilly
Nosek
Last 10: O'Reilly 2-8 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
3
O'Reilly
Nosek
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
4
O'Reilly
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
O'Reilly
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (841)
52.7% (355)
+5.9%
Power Play
59.9% (207)
28.6% (7)
+31.3%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (148)
44.0% (25)
+14.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +31.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (865).
O'Reilly shoots left. Nosek is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Nosek
Home
59.8% (594)
52.8% (214)
Away
57.8% (602)
50.3% (173)
By Period
O'Reilly
Nosek
P1
61.7%
54.2%
P2
56.2%
53.1%
P3
59.5%
46.4%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2021 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 3 | 07:12 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 1 | 15:28 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 1 | 08:33 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 10:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 17:24 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 1 | 03:16 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |